Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Dow closes above 13,000 for the first time since crisis

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rode a wave of confidence in the economy Tuesday to close to 13,000, a threshold is exceeded, the last four months before the financial crisis of 2008 and the darkest days of the Great Recession.
The milestone extended a strong rally in equities since the beginning of the year, and it came after a turbulent week in which the Dow soared again over 13,000 fall back only to the end of the trading day.
The Dow closed at 13,005.12, a call is close enough that the income of an individual share, Johnson & Johnson, made the difference. The Dow last closed above 13,000 in May 2008, four months before the fall of investment bank Lehman Brothers and the worst of the crisis.
"I think it's an important day for the confidence of investors," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank. "What this number means is that the financial crisis that we are all losing sleep over, it never happened, because now we're back."
Dow 13 000 comes at a time when Americans feel better about the economy than they have in a year. The Conference Board, a private research group said its consumer confidence rose to 70.8 in February, compared to 61.5 in January.
The report came at 10 clock, lifting the Dow over 13,000. It remained there most of the day.
"Two months ago we were talking about a double dip recession. Now growing consumer confidence," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist Schaeffer Investment Research.
He said the Dow milestone "raises a lot of investors who have missed a lot of this rally."
The average first drilled 13 000 last Tuesday, but fell again by the close. It hovered above the milestone again on Friday and Monday, but slid under two days. A strong rally for equities this year, it seemed as built on Wall Street over the rising price of oil and gas concern stalled.
Tuesday, the Dow gain is 1160 points below its all-time high, set ninth October 2007. The great recession began two months later.
The milestone could lead to some fence-sitting investors back into the market and add to the gains, said Brian Gendreau, market strategist at Cetera Financial Group.
"Even here in the first two months we've blown past the consensus expectations for the full year, and that certainly gets people's attention," he said.
The Dow started with his best January since 1997 and has added to this competition. The index is up 6.5 percent for the young year.
Others have, on average, fared even better: The Standard & Poor's 500 is up 9 percent, the Russell 2000 index of smaller stocks by 11 percent and the Nasdaq composite index, dominated by technology stocks, is up 14 percent.
The other major indices are sitting on multi-year highs as well. The S & P has closed Tuesday on the highest level since June 2008, and the Nasdaq traded, not so high since December 2000, while the bursting of the bubble in technology stocks.
Just last August, the Dow fell 2,000 points in three weeks frightening. Investors were concerned about the European debt crisis, traffic gridlock in Washington over the federal borrowing limit, a downgrade of U.S. credit-rating and the risk of another recession.
After Labor Day, melted away the fear of a recession. Since then, the stock market in a tug-of-war between optimism about the improving U.S. economy and the fear that the crisis in Europe, the U.S. would derail recovery involved.
The optimists have won.
The Dow crossed 13,000 to up the old fashioned way, the economy ride higher. The unemployment rate has come for five months in a row, the first time that has happened since 1994.
The economy of 243 000 jobs in January, one of the three best months since 2006. The gains were surprisingly robust in the industry throughout the economy, including the largest adjustment in the production in one year.
In the stock market, improving the economy to slow, steady gains translated - about 20 points per day for the Dow, averaged over the eight weeks. The index has gained more than 100 points in just three days, and it has not fallen 100 points in one day.
On Tuesday, seven of the 10 industry groups in the S & P 500 index were higher, with information technology and consumer discretionary stocks at the top. Utility stocks, which have traditionally been a sound investment in a weak economy, lower.
Microsoft introduced the 30 stocks in the Dow with a gain of 1.7 percent for the day. Johnson & Johnson had the largest price change. It gained 73 cents, and was responsible for 5.52 points clear of the Dow's gain, enough to the 13,000 level.
The S & P 500 gained 4.59 points for the day to close at 1,372.18. Technical traders said it was a breakthrough because the S & P has been narrowed to 1100-1370 for months.
The Nasdaq gained 20.60 to close at 2,986.76.
The prices for U.S. Treasuries were little changed. In addition to consumer confidence figure, investors with a Commerce Department report that the struggling company cut back on machinery and equipment in January.
The price of the 10-year government bond fell 12.5 cents for every $ 100 invested. The yield rose to 1.94 percent from 1.93 percent late Monday. Shorter running all treasuries were almost unchanged.
The euro rose against the dollar the day before the European Central Bank is expected to banks in the region for another round of loans. A jump in U.S. consumer confidence also pushed traders to buy the euro.
The Dow first cracked on 25 13 000 April 2007 when unemployment was 4.5 percent, well below the current 8.3 percent, and the economy was growing at a relatively healthy clip.
From there it was a quick trip to the Dow's all-time high. The average crossed 14,000 in July 2007, peaked at 14,164.53 on 9 October 2007. Concerns about weak corporate profits and tighter credit conditions have been haunting the market, though.
The trip back down to 13,000 was less pleasant. It took a little over a month. Ten months later came the fall of Lehman Brothers and the financial crisis. The Dow bottomed on 9 March 2009, at 6,547.05.
Analysts say the stock market has become accustomed to ongoing threats this year, including a debt crisis in Europe and an economic recovery in the United States who wish not so much as economists.
The petrol price has emerged as the latest concern. A gallon of regular cost $ 3.72 on average. The price has risen for 21 days in a row. Economists worry that gas climb high enough to cut into consumer spending in the rest of the economy.
"It is important to remember that not the stock market is not the U.S. economy and the U.S. economy, the stock market," said Dan Greenhaus, Chief Global Strategist for the mediation BTIG. "Most people will probably say:" Dow 13,000. So, where's my job? "
The consumer confidence reading of 70.8, while the much stronger than the 63 that economists had expected, is still far below the level of 90, which gives a healthy economy. It was over 110 by mid-2007, before the recession.
However, Green said house, while 13 000 just a round number, "there is a round number that is likely to make many Americans feel better about the economy and the stock market is. It is another sign that things get better."

Ditulis Oleh : Tris P // 4:29 PM
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